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Emission Pathways to reach 2 ºC Target - Model results and analysis

Infras and ETH Zürich Report

In a new study, INFRAS together with the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science at ETH Zurich analyse different pathways of the development of global greenhouse gas emissions that are consistent with the 2° C target of the Cancun Agreements (2010).

full report: Emission Pathways to reach 2 ºC Target - Model results and analysis

The aim of the study is to illustrate on a conceptual level how three different quantitative burden sharing algorithms lead to different emission reduction pathways for the countries.

Our preliminary results indicate that with the current ambitions of the party’s 2020 pledges it will be much more difficult (and costly) to reach the 2° C target than if substantial mitigation action is already taken up by all countries and sectors before 2020. We further find that even if Annex I (developed) countries would take swift action to rapidly reduce GHG emissions in the next decades, the 2°C target cannot be reached if non-Annex I (developing) countries do not participate soon in mitigation action.

The elaboration of the study has been funded by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN).

Source: Infras, 23. April 2012, Dr. Jürg Füssler, Martin Herren, Madeleine Guyer (INFRAS), Joeri Rogelj and Prof. Dr. Reto Knutti (ETHZ)


  • Climate change mitigation
  • Mitigation
  • Scenario