UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report has compared where greenhouse gas emissions are heading against where they need to be, and highlighted the best ways to close the gap. This year's report presents the latest data on the expected gap in 2030 for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature targets of the Paris Agreement. It considers different scenarios, from no new climate policies since 2005 to full implementation of all national commitments under the Paris Agreement. For the first time, it looks at how large annual cuts would need to be from 2020 to 2030 to stay on track to meeting the Paris goals.
Key findings of this report:
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise, despite scientific warnings and political commitments.
G20 members account for 78 per cent of global GHG emissions. Collectively, they are on track to meet their limited 2020 Cancun Pledges, but seven countries are currently not on track to meet 2030 NDC commitments, and for a further three, it is not possible to say.
Although the number of countries announcing net zero GHG emission targets for 2050 is increasing, only a few countries have so far formally submitted long-term strategies to the UNFCCC.
The emissions gap is large. In 2030, annual emissions need to be 15 GtCO2e lower than current unconditional NDCs imply for the 2 °C goal, and 32 GtCO2e lower for the 1.5 °C goal.
Dramatic strengthening of the NDCs is needed in 2020. Countries must increase their NDC ambitions threefold to achieve thewell below 2 °C goal and more than fivefold toachieve the 1.5 °C goal.
Enhanced action by G20 members will be essential for the global mitigation effort.
Decarbonizing the global economy will require fundamental structural changes, which should be designed to bring multiple co-benefits for humanity and planetary support systems.
Renewables and energy efficiency, in combination with electrification of end uses,
are key to a successful energy transition and to driving down energy-related CO2 emissions.
Demand-side material efficiency offerssubstantial GHG mitigation opportunities that are complementary to those obtained through an energy system transformation.