Economic growth without population growth

(cr) Europe and Japan are faced with a great challenge: Their population is forecasted to decline by more than 10% in the next 50 years. Within Europe the population changes are significantly different (Switzerland +7%, Germany and Italy about -10%, Sweden and France +14%). For Europe the working population will decline by 17% and the retired population increase by nearly 80%. This has great economic consequences. The potential growth rate of the GDP is expected to drop by about one percent until 2040 with stronger effects for those regions with declining population.
Not all industrialized countries are confronted with the same challenge in the next 50 years: The population of North America, Australia and New Zeeland is expected to grow by more than 30% and the world population will increase by 40% to over 9 Mia persons. The Northern African countries bordering the Mediterranean are projected to grow by nearly 60%. By 2050 India will be the country with the largest population.
Migration effects can be estimated only with great caution. The United Nations expect that only about 4% of the population growth in the developing world will be absorbed by the industrialized world. By 2050 these are nevertheless about 100 million persons.
This is a great challenge for Europe and Japan for now, but other nations are likely to face the same problems in some decades when their population starts to stabilize. While the stabilization of the world population around 2050 is good news for the system earth, we have to find ways to keep the economy prosperous without a growing population.
This text bases on an article by W. Haug in the NZZ (17.5.2005).